U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States in 2025 from 20 to 35 percent. With this move, Wall Street experts are aligning more closely with predictions from crypto-focused markets.

The background to this shift is the aggressive trade policy of the U.S. President, which is causing uncertainty across both financial markets and business leaders. Trump recently announced that, starting April 2nd, reciprocal tariffs will be introduced “with all countries.”

According to the decentralized crypto betting platform Polymarket, the odds of a U.S. recession beginning in 2025 now stand at 39 percent. Rival platform Kalshi places the probability even higher, at 43 percent.

A recession is defined as an economic downturn marked by two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Based on this definition, Germany has technically been in a recession since 2023.

Both stock market investors and crypto traders are unsettled by the escalating trade tensions. Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 has dropped over 5 percent, while Bitcoin has corrected by more than 10 percent.

Despite this, Alexander Höptner, CEO of AllUnity, remains optimistic. Speaking to BTC-ECHO, he said: “If we remind ourselves that Bitcoin is an asset outside the immediate impact of trade wars and the traditional financial system, I expect a significant appreciation.”

In the medium to long term, ongoing economic stagnation could prompt the U.S. to loosen its monetary policy. For so-called “risk assets” like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, lower interest rates are generally seen as a bullish signal.

Curious how Trump’s tariff offensive could impact Bitcoin’s price? Read more in the article: “Bitcoin in the Trade War.”