35% chance of Ethereum ETF in May

Experts believe it is increasingly unlikely that an Ethereum spot ETF will be approved in the U.S. in May. There are many reasons for this.

The saga surrounding the approval of a Ethereum spot ETF in the U.S. will likely take longer than previously expected. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas recently revised their predictions on financial product approvals. The latter gave Cointelegraph several reasons for his tempered prediction.

Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, there has been little exchange between applicants and the Securities and Exchange Commission. "Not a good sign," Balchunas says. However, this exchange is important to the approval process, the expert continues.

"The SEC comments that issuers have to process and correct. They may have to re-apply and arrange meetings with the authority - it's a long process."

James Seyffart takes a similar view. On X (formerly Twitter) he adds, "We are about 73 days away from the deadline and there seems to be little to no movement."

Added to this is the SEC's rather critical attitude toward Ethereum. The authority believes that the second most valuable cryptocurrency could be a security. If granted permission, it could represent another "political setback" for SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, Balchunas said.

So far, analysts have assumed that approval could be granted on May 23, 2024. This is the date by which the SEC must decide on asset manager VanEck's application. For experts, it was therefore likely that the US authority would approve multiple applications at once, similar to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

However, the radio silence between the SEC and the asset managers seems to be thwarting this. For example, the securities regulator recently stated a application from BlackRock from.

Both Balchunas and Seyffart think the chance of approval by the end of May is only "35 percent." In the long term, however, approval is expected, they add.