There are always fantastic price predictions for various cryptocurrencies from all corners of the community. However, how the true value of a coin or token is measured remains a mystery to many. This makes it all the more important when professional analysts from the institutional sector dare to make a prediction. This is what Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush did recently. Both are digital asset analysts at VanEck, one of the world's largest asset managers. Together, they developed a rapport three scenarios for the future performance of ETH, the second-largest blockchain currency by market capitalization.

Moderate variant - ETH at US$11,800

The two analysts' valuation method is based on estimates of fee income and other cash flows, as well as calculations of Ethereum's fully diluted valuation. A major game-changer for blockchain is the recent Shapella-upgrade, which caused a huge risk reduction in Ethereum's strike. As a result, VanEck sees revenues from the network increasing from $2.1 billion to $51 billion by 2030. Assuming Ethereum has a 70 percent market share among all smart contract protocols, the analysts calculate an implied price of $11,800 per coin in 2030.

This is a conservative prediction by VanEck. Depending on what assumptions one makes about future earnings and discount factors, more scenarios can be listed, which VanEck has roughly summarized in a table.

Ethereum - Bullish en bearish case

The moderate variant alone would mean a more than six-fold price increase for Ethereum. But Sigel and Bush also caution against caution. One of the biggest obstacles for Ethereum (and the crypto sector in general) is the current hostile attitude of U.S. authorities, especially the SEC. With its current style of regulation, the SEC has caused institutional crypto investments in the U.S. to virtually grind to a halt. Sigel said in a interview with Bankless.

However, Ethereum's revenues from network fees depend on increasing blockchain adoption. VanEck assumes that a certain portion of the banking and financial sector could be traded on Ethereum by 2030. However, if regulatory attitudes toward cryptocurrencies remain hostile, network revenues could stagnate at current levels over time. At worst, analysts consider a price of only $343 possible.

Against this is the optimistic scenario. Here it is assumed that 10 percent of financial, metaverse and media, as well as tech infrastructure, will go on-chain. If Ethereum maintains its status as the dominant Layer 1 platform with an assumed 70 percent market share, VanEck arrives at a price of $51,000 per coin in 2030. Ethereum's annual revenue would then be $136 billion. Incidentally, discounting the conservative forecast of $11,800, the current price of Ethereum would be around $5,300, according to VanEck.