Many Bitcoin holders are hoping for another bull run thanks to a possible Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) in the US. But Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, sees little good in that. In his new essay "The Genie" he emphatically warns the crypto community about this plan.

Political influence on the Bitcoin market
According to Hayes, the fundamental problem lies in the way governments buy assets. "What can be bought can also be sold," the cryptomillionaire states soberly. He emphasizes that governments invest primarily for political, not financial, reasons. This would be no different with Bitcoin.

Initially, the price of Bitcoin could benefit enormously from such a reserve. Hayes outlines a scenario in which Trump manages to create an SBR and the U.S. government buys one million Bitcoin, as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis. "Boom! The price explodes."

Danger of future liquidation
But what happens in a political change of power? Hayes warns: suppose the Democrats win in 2028, there will suddenly be a million Bitcoin that can simply be sold again with a single signature. This would lead to uncertainty in the market, with investors constantly fearing when and how this huge stock of BTC would be liquidated.

According to Hayes, this uncertainty would dampen enthusiasm for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The threat of a sudden government sale would become a permanent risk factor.

Government as unreliable hodler
In addition, Hayes doubts that the U.S. government would be a reliable Bitcoin hodler. He sees the BTC reserve as a "set-it-and-forget-it" strategy, in which politicians brag when the price is high, but quickly retreat when the market drops or economic problems occur.

His harsh conclusion? "Creating an SBR or a national stockpile of shitcoins [...] makes all government-owned crypto a powerful political weapon."