Dit wordt belangrijk voor Bitcoin en crypto deze week

Bitcoin's price is benefiting from a positive start to the year on Wall Street, rising six percentage points to above US$98,000 in a week. Altcoins are also benefiting from the rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Whether the crypto market will continue its bullish start to the year in the coming trading week and what economic data will be the focus of investors' attention this week, we discuss in this overview.

Key economic data of the week

The second trading week in January is dominated by data from the U.S. labor market. First, tomorrow, Tuesday, the current Jolts vacancy report will be released. Mid-week will follow the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve Bank's latest interest rate meeting. At the end of the week, on Friday, the US NFP labor market report and the latest unemployment rate figures will be released. In addition, market participants will listen carefully to the statements of several U.S. central bankers during their speeches in the new trading week.

Jolts vacancy report at the beginning of the week

Tuesday, January 7, 2025: Tomorrow, Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the latest Jolts vacancy report for the month of November at 4 p.m. (CET). Recently, the number of job openings at 7.744 million was higher than expert expectations of 7.510 million. For the latest figures, analysts expect a slight decline in the number of unfilled jobs from the previous month to 7.770 million. If, after a rebound in October, U.S. companies created a similar number of jobs as recently and beat the experts' forecast, it could indicate an improving situation in the increasingly strained U.S. labor market.

A strong Jolts report could have a positive impact on the recently weak stock market and subsequently boost crypto market prices as well. However, if the number of new jobs has fallen as analysts expect and is even below experts' predictions, this could be a further warning that the situation in the U.S. economy could deteriorate further. This could lead to continued price corrections in both the stock market and the crypto sector.

FOMC mid-week meeting minutes Wednesday

Jan. 8, 2025: At 8 p.m., the U.S. central bank Fed will present the minutes of its latest interest rate decision on Dec. 18. Investors are hoping for more details about the Fed's future interest rate policy after Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish speech. Powell did not indicate whether interest rates will be adjusted again at the next interest rate meeting. The Fed will closely monitor the data situation and not act hastily, which subsequently led to significant selling in the market.

According to the CME Watch tool, only 11 percent of market participants currently expect a further 25 basis point rate cut at the end of January. Developments in recently rebounding producer and consumer prices will likely determine whether U.S. central bankers will stick to their current course. If the meeting minutes contain new details about the Fed members' stance, trading volatility in the markets is likely to increase significantly.

U.S. labor market report and unemployment rate at end of week

Friday, January 10, 2025: On the last day of the trading week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics presents the latest US non-farm employment figures for the previous December at 2:30 p.m. (CET). At 227,000, the number of new jobs created recently was slightly higher than the forecast of 202,000 new jobs created. As recently as October, with only 12,000 jobs created, the number of new jobs was as low as it has not been since January 2021. So it remains to be seen whether the labor market has further stabilized or, as expected by experts, created only 154,000 new jobs outside agriculture. If the analysts' prediction is only met or not even achieved, the Fed will continue to monitor the labor market closely.

Weak NFP reports led to increased sales of risky assets in the second half of the past trading year, which could also strain the crypto market. However, if, as in the previous month, the analyst forecast is beaten and the U.S. labor market proves unexpectedly robust, this could give the Fed more leeway in its monetary policy decisions. If U.S. stock market prices benefit from strong labor market data, Bitcoin's price could also subsequently rise.

At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate for the past December is presented. In November, the unemployment rate of 4.2 percent was within experts' prediction. For the previous month, analysts forecast an unchanged rate of 4.2 percent. If the December jobless rate is above the analyst forecast, the Fed will consider the deterioration in its future monetary policy decisions. A deteriorating labor market could prompt investors, as in previous months, to separate further from risky asset classes. On the other hand, should the unemployment rate stagnate or even fall against prediction, this could be an indication that the situation in the U.S. labor market may be clearing up again. An unexpectedly large drop in the unemployment rate could prompt investors to increase purchases of risky assets.