Probability of a US recession in 2025 rising rapidly

With his import tariffs, the U.S. president is causing a stir and giving both traditional and crypto investors headaches. After the introduction of 25% additional tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a "10-plus-10 plan" against China now follows, and the EU could just be next.

But not only trading partners are affected - the US economy also risks suffering from rising consumer prices and retaliatory tariffs. According to the crypto betting market Polymarket the probability of the US falling into recession by 2025 has already risen to 37%. At competitor Kalshi is even estimated at a 40% chance, an increase of 22 percentage points since Trump's inauguration.

A recession means an economic downturn characterized by two consecutive quarters of negative growth. By this definition, Germany has been in recession for some time.