According to an analysis by on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin bull market may have already peaked. In any case, this is evident from the so-called Bull Score Index from the analysis company, a composite indicator that assesses Bitcoin's overall market situation.

If data from this index is to be believed, Bitcoin has been showing signs of weakening at deeper levels since the recent correction from its all-time high.

The Bull Score Index assesses 10 key metrics, including network activity, investor profitability, market liquidity and other factors. Based on these, it gives a score between 0 and 100. The higher the score, the stronger and more positive the market environment. Low scores, on the contrary, indicate a weaker, bearish market.

Currently, the Bull Score Index stands at 20 - the lowest level since January 2023, when Bitcoin was trading around $16,000. Eight of the 10 key metrics are currently sending warning signals. Network activity has been falling since December 2024, and transaction volume and liquidity have also declined significantly.

That fuels fears that the recent decline in stock prices is part of a broader, downward trend and not just a temporary correction.

8/10 $BTC on-chain signals are now bearish.

The Bitcoin "Bull Score" chart has historically signalled shifts from bull markets to bear markets, and vice versa.

I'm watching how this indicator develops closely. pic.twitter.com/GIsmuX5hRt
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) March 25, 2025

If the index stays below 40 for an extended period, analysts say that could indicate a continuation of bearish market conditions similar to earlier phases of the market.

What is also of concern is the amount of Bitcoin still held by short-term investors. As of Jan. 1, 2025, they have increased their position by 201,743 BTC, so this group now owns a total of 5,750,076 BTC.

"In short, this means that about 200,000 BTC are currently being held at an unrealized loss," he said. explains an analyst explained. At current rates, that means a potential sales pressure of some $17 billion from this investor group.

Still, not everyone is gloomy. Another CryptoQuant analyst remains optimistic. According to him, some of his most reliable historical indicators indicate that while Bitcoin is under pressure in the short to medium term, "None of these indicators suggest that Bitcoin is overheating or has reached the end of the cycle. Rather, the current situation resembles the Carry-Trade crisis of August 5, 2024, when Bitcoin was also temporarily pressured by macroeconomic factors."

That crisis gave similar signals, but improved as economic conditions relaxed. "We've seen this happen before: once macroeconomic pressures ease, Bitcoin often manages to recover well."