News - The most important info for crypto this week.

By Ted Maas

The most important info for crypto this week.

Bitcoin (BTC)
World Economy

New inflation figures from Europe and the U.S. will influence Bitcoin (BTC) price movements this week.

While U.S. stock indices closed near their highest points for the year (on the day when options and futures - financial contracts based on the future price of stocks and other assets - expire simultaneously), about 60 percent of the top 100 altcoins corrected in value in recent days. Days like these lead to increased market volatility and unpredictable movements in stock prices. Despite this potential stock market turmoil, U.S. equity markets still managed to finish close to their annual highs, while at the same time many alternative cryptocurrencies, or "altcoins," fell in value. Bitcoin (BTC) lost about five percent in value over the week and closed around €37.688. The number two, Ethereum (ETH), also went down more than six percent. Despite the recent price consolidations, Bitcoin still recorded a price increase of about 10 percent in December.

The main interest rate decisions in the US and Europe did not cause any surprises in terms of interest rates. Both the Fed and the ECB left key interest rates at their current levels. Thanks to Fed Chairman Powell's diplomatic statements, global equity markets were able to maintain their year-end rally. The US labor market and the latest US consumer behavior data were also better than forecast. Only weaker-than-expected manufacturing data in the U.S. and the resulting recovery in the U.S. dollar index DXY prompted investors to take more profits in traditional financial markets at the end of the week. The strength of the DXY then also acted as a headwind for large parts of the crypto market.

Whether the positive price trend in the stock and crypto markets will continue in the new trading week depends, as always, on the latest economic data from the US. But what dates are on the agenda this trading week? An overview.

Key economic data of the week

The last trading week before Christmas is marked by new inflation data from Europe and the US. Fresh Eurozone consumer confidence figures will be presented tomorrow, Tuesday. Final US consumer confidence figures will follow on Wednesday, before final gross domestic product figures are released in the second half of the week. The trading week concludes with the latest US PCE core inflation data.

Eurozone inflation figures open trading week

Tuesday, December 19, 2023: At 11:00 a.m. (CET), Eurostat publishes the final consumer prices for Europe for the previous month of November. As in the previous month, experts expect annual inflation to cool again from 2.9 percent to just 2.4 percent. The November 30 preliminary forecasts already pointed to a sharp decline in consumer price trends. This would mean that inflation in Europe would be lower than that in the US for the second month in a row. If consumer prices in the euro zone continue to fall sharply as forecast, the European stock market is likely to react positively to this development, which could also have a positive effect on the crypto market. On the other hand, if, contrary to prediction, consumer prices in the EU are higher than predicted, this would be a setback to the recent Eurozone decline. A renewed flare-up in inflation in Europe, on the other hand, could prompt investors to sell stocks and crypto assets as ECB chief Lagarde also reviews her plan to cut interest rates in April.

U.S. consumer confidence midweek

Wednesday, December 20, 2023: At 16:00 (CET), the Conference Board (CB) will release monthly US consumer confidence figures for December. At 102.0, private households' assessment of economic development in the US was again slightly above the previous month's expert expectation of 101.0, stabilizing somewhat after a recent decline in consumer confidence. For the current month, market observers expect a further rise to 103.8. U.S. private households appear more confident about the future again, after a greater likelihood of a recession was expected in the fall. If the forecast of rising consumer confidence is confirmed and analysts' predictions are met or even exceeded, this should have a positive effect on both the stock market and the Bitcoin price. Weak consumer data, on the other hand, had a negative impact on financial market share price movements several times in 2023. Should consumer confidence deteriorate again against prediction, this could lead to more profit-taking in U.S. equity markets and the cryptocurrency sector shortly before the Christmas vacations.

US gross domestic product in the second half of the week

Thursday, December 21, 2023: At 14:30 (CET), the latest US gross domestic product forecasts for the third trading quarter in 2023 will be presented. Recently, the preliminary forecast of 5.2 percent growth significantly exceeded the market expectation of 4.9 percent, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stock prices and the Bitcoin exchange rate. If the latest preliminary estimate is confirmed and the final gross domestic product figure confirms or exceeds the 5.2 percent estimate, investors are likely to reward U.S. growth with share price appreciation. However, if the November 30 final estimates are not confirmed and third-quarter GDP turns out weaker than expected, investors could punish this with more profit-taking after the price rally of the past seven weeks. The US financial market, and with it the crypto market, could weaken in an initial reaction.

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