The next Bull Run: 7 crucial moments to look out for

What needs to happen for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to climb again? In this article, we list seven crucial moments that could just kickstart the next bull run.

After a turbulent 2022, Bitcoin was able to recover somewhat at the turn of the year. But since March, we have seen only stagnation. The price is hobbling in a sideways motion around the US$30,000 mark. Some people are already talking about the "kangaroo market." Looking for investment opportunities and volatility, most investors are turning to memecoins like PEPE or SHIB. Chart analysts and Youtubers are constantly trying to determine the market cycle and try to get your attention. Has the bottom been reached? How long will the falling market last? When will it go back up? The past teaches: sometimes a spark is missing to initiate the trend reversal. Let's take a look at seven of such potential sparks.

Bitcoin spot ETF in the US.

Several applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs are currently on the desk of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). One is BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. The financial giant has assets under management of more than US$9 trillion. As a result, the cryptocurrency industry hopes that with its approval, institutional money will enter the market.

If only a small portion of BlackRock and Co.'s funds are transferred to Bitcoin, it would have a significant effect on the stock price. It would also signal to investors who until now have been wary of Bitcoin. It will also underscore Bitcoin's value as a sensible asset class. Yet there are also counterarguments to such a big fish in Bitcoin sector. Either way, the adoption of Bitcoin Spot ETFs will no doubt give a huge boost to the price.

Ethereum futures ETF’s

But why should only Bitcoin claim the spotlight? There are also as many as seven applications awaiting SEC approval for a futures ETF for the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH). Unlike a spot ETF, asset managers with futures ETFs do not buy actual cryptocurrencies for their clients, only derivatives traded on traditional exchanges. The SEC has been skeptical of these products until now.

But then, in June, a small miracle happened. The authority approved the first Bitcoin futures ETF. If the SEC were to approve a similar financial product for Ethereum, it would signal a possible change in direction. Indeed, the SEC has received a lot of criticism recently. In addition, an Ethereum futures ETF would be a small step toward Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Bitcoin Halving

The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled around April 2024. Then the amount of BTC distributed to miners per new block will be halved, from 6.25 to 3.125. There have already been three halvings in Bitcoin's history. The event was always followed by a price increase. The logic behind this halving effect: less supply meets constant demand. The result: the price goes up.

How strongly the effect is ultimately reflected in the price is a matter of debate among market observers. The psychological effect of the halving may be much stronger. In anticipation of a price increase, people tend to invest more leading up to the halving. No one wants to miss the boat. More demand means rising prices. A self-fulfilling prophecy? A detailed explanation of halving can be found here.

U.S. presidential election 2024

On Nov. 5, 2024, the United States will elect a president for the 60th time. Potential candidates are already using Bitcoin to win votes. Both Republicans and Democrats.

Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced during the election campaign an end to Biden's "war against crypto". Both favor looser crypto-regulation. In principle, a stronger presence of Bitcoin in the U.S. election campaign could be seen as a positive sign for the industry. On the other hand, one could say that crypto should not be linked to "identity politics," since cryptocurrency is supposed to be there for everyone. Something that does not often happen in the American two-party system.

X-App crypto-integratie

Twitter's transformation into X is in full swing. Elon Musk has announced big plans. With the X-App, the boss of X/Twitter wants to create a "app for everything" develop. Similar to the Chinese app WeChat. Social media, digital ID, audio and video streaming, phone calls or doctor's appointments - all with just one account. And so there is also room for a payment function.

The community expects the Dogecoin fan to take the industry on his journey and somehow integrate cryptocurrencies into his project. X's own token is off the table for now. Musk made it clear that the platform will never "launch a token". From a business perspective, it would make more sense for him to introduce an existing coin as a means of payment, Musk himself said.

An integration could boost the crypto market. Indeed, the (estimated) 240 million daily Twitter users (now X) would gain access to cryptocurrencies and introduce a use case immediately visible to the masses.

Upgrade for Ethereum: EIP-4844

To expand crypto adoption in the long term, blockchains must become suitable for mass use. This means that the network must remain stable even under extremely heavy traffic. Transactions must be processed quickly and at a reasonable cost. On the other hand, usability must be brought to a reasonable end-user level. This also applies to Ethereum.

During the hype around the Memecoin PEPE, a simple token swap on the decentralized exchange Uniswap cost as much as US$50. That's why the developers of the world's largest smart contract platform are working hard on an upgrade that should get scalability under control. The Enhancement Proposal (EIP)-4844, also known as Proto-Danksharding, aims to reduce costs and increase capacity of the ETH network. Layer 2 solutions in particular will benefit and could kickstart a bull run for such coins.

Coinbase vs SEC

In early June, Coinbase was sued by the SEC. Coinbase had violated U.S. financial laws, the regulator said. The charge: illegal trading in securities. According to a report in the Financial Times, the agency even demanded a trading halt for all coins except Bitcoin on the exchange. The SEC, by the way, denies this report.

Coinbase, on their side, accuses the SEC of negligence. The authority has failed to formulate clear guidelines for the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Back in July 2022, the U.S. crypto exchange filed a petition asking for more clarity on laws and regulations. On April 25, Coinbase sued the SEC because the SEC just won't act on it. Clarity is what investors and entrepreneurs in the industry want. A ruling in the Coinbase case could create a snowball effect.