This will be important for Bitcoin and crypto this week

Still unable to extricate itself from the recent correction phase, the Bitcoin exchange rate closed the trading week one percent lower at US$96,475. The announced punitive tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, coupled with disappointing quarterly results from Internet giants Alphabet and Amazon, caused U.S. stock indices to correct - a development that also pressured the crypto market. Once again, the majority of the top 100 altcoins suffered significant price declines. In the new trading week, investors turn their eyes to the new inflation data from the US and the quarterly results of several US crypto companies. Which economic data will further attract investors' attention in the coming days is highlighted in this overview.

Key economic data of the week

The second trading week of February is dominated by inflation data from the US. Mid-week CPI consumer price data are released first. The following day, US producer prices will follow, and finally on Friday, the latest US retail sales figures will be presented. In addition, market participants will pay attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements on Tuesday and Wednesday, each at 16:00 (CET), as well as comments from other US central bank members during the week.

There are also important developments coming up in the crypto sector. Robinhood Markets and Iris Energy Limited will present their latest figures after the close of trading on Wednesday night, while Coinbase - the largest U.S. crypto exchange - will do so on Thursday night. Weak quarterly reports could lead to additional profit-taking, which in turn could put further pressure on the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Strong quarterly earnings, on the other hand, could be a positive boost for the crypto market.

U.S. consumer prices mid-week

Wednesday, February 12, 2025, 2:30 p.m. (CET):
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest consumer price data for the month of January. In December, although prices were within prediction, they rose 0.2 percentage points to 2.9 percent. Analysts expect an unchanged level of 2.9 percent for January. Should actual inflation remain below this forecast, the U.S. central bank will have more leeway for future interest rate adjustments. This could spark a recovery rally, especially for risky assets such as Bitcoin and the recently weak altcoin sector.

In contrast, should inflation remain at 2.9 percent or even rise for the fourth consecutive month, U.S. policymakers are likely to refrain from cutting interest rates at the next interest rate decision in March. Investors will view persistently high price increases negatively, possibly causing them to withdraw en masse from risky asset classes. This could lead to continued selling pressure in both the financial and crypto markets.

U.S. producer prices on Thursday

Thursday, February 13, 2025, 2:30 p.m. (CET):
The latest U.S. producer price index (PPI) for January is presented. Recent producer prices came in at 3.3 percent, which was slightly below the forecast of 3.5 percent, but increased by another 0.3 percentage points compared to November. Since September, producer prices have nearly doubled year-on-year.

Experts again expect a reading of 3.3 percent for the new data. Should, against all prediction, producer prices come in significantly lower than forecasts and lower than in December, stock and crypto market prices could benefit. Indeed, lower producer price increases often lead, with some lag, to falling consumer prices.

If, as expected, producer prices stagnate or even rise again, remaining above the previous month's level, this indicates a persistent inflation problem in the US. Such a situation could trigger a bearish price reaction to risky asset classes. Moreover, President Trump's proposed punitive tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, China and even the European Union could further exacerbate the inflation problem.

U.S. retail sales close out trading week

Friday, Feb. 14, 2025, 2:30 p.m. (CET):
The U.S. Census Bureau releases the final retail sales figures for January. These figures are an important gauge of the spending appetite of American households. In December, sales increased by +0.4 percent relative to the previous month, which was higher than the previous month's +0.2 percent, but still below prediction of +0.5 percent. For January, analysts are counting on a slight decline to +0.3 percent on a monthly basis.

If retail sales beat prediction, a bullish market reaction can be expected. Increased consumer spending in the US typically causes the US dollar index (DXY) to fall, which in turn can have a positive effect on the prices of Bitcoin and altcoins in particular.

However, should retail sales, unlike previous months, turn out to be significantly worse - even if they match or fall short of prediction - this would indicate declining consumption behavior among U.S. consumers. Moreover, weak retail demand may indicate increased risk aversion, which could result in additional profit-taking in both the U.S. financial market and the cryptocurrency sector.

With this economic data in the crosshairs, investors will be watching developments closely in the coming week. So it remains exciting, both in traditional markets and in the world of cryptocurrencies.