This will be important for Bitcoin and crypto this week

The crypto market has had an eventful trading week. The largest crypto hack in history hit the second-largest exchange, Bybit, and caused a temporary correction in the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Over the weekend, these two largest cryptocurrencies recovered. Bitcoin closed the trading week at $96,265, virtually unchanged, while Ether, despite the theft of nearly 500,000 Ethereum coins by a North Korean hacker group, finished surprisingly strong with a six percent increase to $2,812. In the new trading week, investors look forward to the release of the latest PCE core inflation data from the US. This overview reveals what other relevant economic data will be in the spotlight in the coming days.

The week's key economic data: At the start of February's fourth week of trading, investors focus first on the latest U.S. consumer confidence data, released Tuesday. Mid-week will be followed by the latest new home sales figures. On Thursday, the second estimate for U.S. gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2024 is released. The week concludes with the latest PCE core inflation figures for the U.S. on Friday. Investors will also watch for speeches from several U.S. central bankers during the week. Following the FOMC minutes, which spoke of an earlier-than-expected end to quantitative tightening at the end of the quarter, market participants are hoping for more details.

Crypto investors are also watching for the latest quarterly figures from Bitcoin mining companies Riot Platforms Inc. after the market closes on Monday night and Cipher Mining Inc. pre-hours on Tuesday. A showdown follows after the close of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday night when chip giant Nvidia and the largest U.S. crypto miner Mara Digital Holdings present their latest figures. Nvidia's report in particular could lead to increased market volatility.

CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday: On Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2025 at 4 p.m. (MEZ), the Conference Board (CB) publishes monthly US consumer confidence figures for the expiring month of trade. With an index of 104.1, households' assessment of economic conditions in the US was again lower than analyst estimates of 105.7. Consumer confidence thus fell significantly for the third month in a row. For the month of February, experts expect an index of 103.1. If the experts' prediction fell again and even missed again after the drastic deterioration in recent months, it could cause a negative reaction in the stock and crypto markets. However, if stabilization occurs and the numbers turn out better than expected, this could cause a positive reaction to risky assets and also drive the Bitcoin price.

New home sales in the middle of the week: On Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025 at 4 p.m. (MEZ), the Census Bureau will publish current sales figures for newly built homes in the US. In the previous month, after two weak months in which analyst forecasts were not met, sales were slightly above the forecast of 669,000 units sold at 698,000. If this positive trend continues and analysts' predictions of 677,000 homes are again exceeded, it could indicate a stabilization of the important US real estate market.

US Gross Domestic Product provides insight into the state of the US economy: On Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025 at 2:30 p.m. (EIA), the latest estimates of U.S. gross domestic product for the final trading quarter of 2024 will be released. Initial estimates were below the +2.3 percent growth estimate of +2.7 percent. If the latest projections again come in lower than the initial forecast for the final quarter in 2024, the Federal Reserve would have to look more closely at the declining growth of the U.S. economy until the next interest rate decision in March. The stock market could fall in response to potentially much weaker-than-expected economic growth in the previous quarter. However, if the initial estimate significantly exceeds 2.3 percent and even reaches the final growth rate of the previous quarter at +3.1 percent, the market would appreciate this development as the economy has shown resilience despite persistently high interest rates.

US Core inflation figures at the end of the week: On Friday, Feb. 28, 2025 at 2:30 p.m. (MEZ), the current US core inflation (PCE) figures for the previous January will be released. At +0.2 percent, the latest core inflation figures were in line with the expert forecast of +0.2 percent. As core CPI inflation has been significantly above analysts' prediction recently, the risk of a further increase could be confirmed. In the latest estimate, analysts assume a month-on-month increase of +0.3 percent. If PCE core inflation remains surprisingly below prediction, the chances of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank at their next interest rate session in March could improve slightly. A favorable market reaction would be expected in that case. However, if the core inflation figures are in line with or even above the experts' prediction, the problem of persistently high inflation in the U.S. would still not go away. The likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank in the coming months would then decrease further, which could prompt investors to increased sales of risky assets.