News - When does the lateral movement stop?

By Luc Vesters

When does the lateral movement stop?

The Bitcoin price has been battling the psychologically important USD 70,000 limit for several months. The BTC price has repeatedly breached this limit in the short term, only to correct downward again. Many investors are frustrated by this development and wonder what will happen next and whether a new all-time high could even be reached in the near future. Therefore, in this article we look at several developments and indicators that offer the prospect of an early end to the decline in the crypto market.

How Whales currently behave

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that Whale have only slightly reduced their BTC holdings in recent weeks. While this is not a clear signal of an upcoming upside move, as large purchases are still lacking, it does indicate some confidence: Whale seem to be positive about the medium to long term. They are holding most of their Bitcoin in the prediction that the bull run is not over yet.

However, there are also signs of caution. Although the number of large investors has steadily increased in recent months, their current behavior indicates that Whales are also waiting for clear bullish signals and better market conditions before buying larger amounts of Bitcoin again.

US regulatory developments as next positive price boost for Bitcoin?

Despite generally uncertain market sentiment, there are positive signs of regulatory developments in the U.S. that may increasingly boost investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The upcoming launch of the Ethereum ETF and recent moves to improve the legal framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. show that crypto assets are increasingly recognized as legitimate parts of the financial system. Moreover, an increasingly likely Donald Trump victory in the U.S. election in November could provide even more tailwind on cryptocurrency regulation and bring new capital to the crypto market.

Macroeconomic conditions paint a bullish picture

Another important aspect is the stabilization of macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has indicated that it may ease its tight monetary policy this year. This could lead to a drop in interest rates, making investments in more volatile assets such as Bitcoin more attractive. The latest data show that inflation is still above the Fed's target, but there are signs that inflation is stabilizing.

Steno Research predicts that this trend will continue in the coming weeks and months, which should particularly benefit Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market.

Global money supply slowly increasing

However, more liquidity is being pumped into markets not only in the U.S., but also at the global level. CrossBorder Capital's chart illustrates this trend and clearly shows that global liquidity has begun to rise again after a period of stagnation.

Why is this positive for the Bitcoin price? Historically, Bitcoin has had a strong correlation with the development of global liquidity. Therefore, current developments make it likely that the Bitcoin price could soon start rising again.

Buy Bitcoin or wait for lower prices?

The decision to buy Bitcoin now or wait for lower prices depends on several factors and should be carefully considered. Long-term investors who strongly believe in Bitcoin's potential currently have a number of plausible reasons to buy. The confidence of key investor groups in Bitcoin remains stable and the excessive euphoria in the market has subsided. From a regulatory and macroeconomic perspective, the market environment is likely to change increasingly in favor of Bitcoin in the coming months.

However, it is important not to forget the volatile nature of the crypto market. External factors such as new regulations or unforeseen events in the macroeconomic or geopolitical landscape can affect the Bitcoin price at any time. Therefore, you should always be cautious when investing in cryptocurrency. However, if you are a long-term believer in Bitcoin, setting up a Bitcoin savings plan may be a good option right now.

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