The Bybit hack and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump import tariffs continue to put pressure on Bitcoin's share price. Is the market sliding toward a bear market or will a quick recovery follow? We take a look under the hood of the blockchain. One thing up front: corrections come with the territory. Bitcoin is a volatile asset and so far there has not been a single bull market without significant corrections of more than 30 percent.

However, as the chart from CryptoQuant above clearly shows, the corrections decrease in magnitude as time passes. Should the price have actually bottomed at US$77,000 (USD), that would only represent a 29 percent decline.

Nevertheless, we should note that sentiment is currently bearish. Since early February, demand for Bitcoin has been negative. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju writes about this on X:

"The visible demand comes from the difference between production and stock changes. In Bitcoin, production refers to supply from mining, while inventory refers to coins that have remained inactive for more than a year. When inventory decreases faster than production, demand increases, and vice versa."

Bitcoin's Short Term Holder Cost Basis also does not bode well at the moment. Currently, Bitcoin is below the break-even line (red) for the majority of short-term investors.

In other words, the majority of those who have invested in BTC over the past 150 days are currently at a loss. Should Bitcoin fall further, panic selling may follow, which will again put downward pressure on the price.

Is the bull market over? But how will it continue? It is possible that the current price level actually offers historical buying opportunities. After all, the Trump administration has removed important risks: a ban is no longer an issue with the introduction of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. On the contrary, with the signing of the Executive Order, Trump has initiated a race for 21 million coins, which could lead to a demand shock in the medium term.

Trump's economic policies and tariff war create a lot of uncertainty among investors which is clearly reflected in falling stock prices. The crypto market is also benefiting little from the positive developments Trump promises regarding crypto regulation.